Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd0…7b7b crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$137 (-29%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$90
other 26% +$119
sports 10% −$37
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 33% +56.8%
≤30d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 33% +56.8%
≤90d 53 -42.7% -48.2% 32% 32% -10.6%
all 53 -42.7% -48.2% 32% 32% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 32% -10.6%
10% -53.1% 28% -19.2%
15% -57.7% 23% -27.0%
20% -61.8% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage71d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$101 +103%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$28 +180%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 25 $45 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 24 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$4 +177%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 11 $6 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $13 +$7 +53%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: XtremeDogs vs Bitfix Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B Apr 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 11 $12 −$7 -56%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 24m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $43 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $60 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $45 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $15 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $15 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $22 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records