Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8bcf…c767 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$966 · open −$966
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$837per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,883
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 40% 40% -99.7%
≤30d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 40% 40% -99.7%
≤90d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 40% 40% -99.7%
all 5 -30.1% -36.7% 40% 40% -99.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 40% -99.7%
10% -42.8% 40% -99.7%
15% -48.3% 40% -99.7%
20% -53.4% 40% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$306 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7,189
Realized+$966
Unrealized−$966
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$837
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2,951 $2,918 −$33 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 36¢ $3,944 $2,716 −$1,228 (-31%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 100¢ $601 $1,036 +$435 (+72%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $520 $516 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Curaçao 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 167.5 Jun 24 $930 −$917 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $529 23m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1,000 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $609 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2,000 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $138 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,000 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,000 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 53¢ $930 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 78¢ $2 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,189.18 · official $7,189.18 (match) · 17 history records