Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8bce…4d5c world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$431 (-12%) realized −$429 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days+$555
14 days+$555
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$672
politics 30% −$1,100
other 3% −$2
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.3% +4.3% 25% 25% +28.8%
≤30d 4 +15.3% +4.3% 25% 25% +28.8%
≤90d 8 +20.0% +8.6% 25% 25% -17.4%
all 9 +6.9% -3.3% 22% 22% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 22% -19.9%
10% -12.5% 22% -27.6%
15% -21.0% 22% -34.6%
20% -28.7% 22% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$667 vs −$252 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage392d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$4 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $261 −$239 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $498 +$1,035 +208%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $498 −$237 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $100 +$299 +299%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $600 −$171 -29%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 26 $500 −$15 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Mar 25 $1,034 −$1,003 -97%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $57 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $261 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $498 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $498 6d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 96¢ $399 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $485 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $429 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $500 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $500 82d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 376d
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr SELL Yes 0¢ $2 376d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 376d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 3¢ $900 382d
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr BUY Yes 5¢ $100 388d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.98 · official $95.98 (match) · 26 history records