Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8bcc…13c3 sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,446 (-17%) realized −$3,464 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%113W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$68
14 days−$3,596
30 days−$4,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,925
crypto 2% +$277
other 2% +$56
world 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +9.6% -0.8% 47% 47% -3.3%
≤30d 214 +6.6% -3.6% 46% 45% -33.8%
≤90d 247 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 45% -25.9%
all 247 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 45% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 45% -25.9%
10% -12.8% 45% -33.0%
15% -21.2% 44% -39.5%
20% -28.9% 43% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$86 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3,464
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses113 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 250
History coverage44d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 74¢ $19 $37 +$18 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$43 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$10 +140%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$8 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$42 -41%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$12 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$25 +96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$22 +259%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$48 +94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$27 -73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$18 -69%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +223%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$18 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 +$24 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$47 -72%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$13 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -75%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $21 −$7 -33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$30 +108%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $34 +$27 +79%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $2 +$7 +263%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $6 +$7 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +108%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$34 +111%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $14 +$12 +91%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $21 +$20 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $7 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 1¢ $0 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $44 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $1 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $19 23h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $7 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $7 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $3 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 47¢ $1 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $25 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $30 34h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $30 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 46h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $8 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.25 · official $38.77 · 768 history records