Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bca…0500
crypto · 478 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,019 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$998 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$169
Realized−$998
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses180 / 261
Open positions39
Markets (closed)441 / 478
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day233.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 39 History 441 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$971
14 days−$998
30 days−$998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $13 $26 +$13 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 39¢ 58¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 26¢ 44¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 32¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 40¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 32¢ 8¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +3205%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25? Jun 13 $0 +$9 +44222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$6 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$12 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$11 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$10 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$7 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% −$905
crypto 16% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 441 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 31% -19.2%
≤90d 441 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 31% -19.2%
all 441 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 31% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover233.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 31% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 27% -26.9%
15% -30.3% 25% -34.0%
20% -37.1% 23% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.36 · official $173.97 · 3500 history records