Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8bca…824e sports 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,067 (-24%) realized −$1,053 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%141W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$85
14 days+$100
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$59
sports 41% −$1,053
other 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +16.7% +5.6% 52% 47% -6.1%
≤30d 181 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 45% +1.1%
≤90d 254 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 43% -32.0%
all 254 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 43% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -32.0%
10% -16.1% 37% -38.5%
15% -24.2% 33% -44.4%
20% -31.7% 29% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses141 / 113
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions42
Markets (closed)254 / 297
History coverage43d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Down 21¢ 12¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-45%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 49¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 28¢ 74¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+164%)
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Mili Poljicak 49¢ 87¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Viktoria Hruncakova Rebecca Sramkova 61¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue Clervie Ngounoue 58¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Benjamin Hassan 42¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Teodora Kostovic Teodora Kostovic 81¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Sarah Rakotomanga 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Ella McDonald 42¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-14? No 48¢ 70¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Hanyu Guo 40¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Xiaodi You 53¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 92¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Radu Albot 48¢ 59¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Aliaksandra Sasnovich 73¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Tatiana Prozorova 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Jeline Vandromme 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +53%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $2 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$49 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$67 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $1 +$3 +276%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +2%
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Plovdiv: Philip Henning vs Andres Santamarta Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $41 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Jun 23 $2 +$2 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $2 +$5 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$24 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Plovdiv: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Jelle Sels Jun 23 $1 +$3 +291%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$63 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$38 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $2 +$2 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $215 +$123 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $170 +$52 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$111 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $115 +$51 +44%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Jun 23 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $1 +$3 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$4 -19%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 23 $1 +$2 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $32 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 16m
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 90¢ $1 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 38¢ $2 18m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 44¢ $1 18m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ $2 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Ella McDonald 42¢ $1 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Hanyu Guo 40¢ $2 20m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez BUY Arantxa Rus 28¢ $1 20m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe BUY Maria Timofeeva 96¢ $1 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Lola Radivojevic 41¢ $1 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 87¢ $1 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Xiaodi You 44¢ $1 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 95¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 59¢ $2 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 80¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $155 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $191 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.49 · official $83.49 (match) · 569 history records