Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bca…e136 weather 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$83 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%165W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day152.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$835
7 days−$905
14 days−$1,185
30 days−$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$171
crypto 0% +$3
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -37.2% -43.2% 19% 19% -58.1%
≤30d 641 -16.0% -24.0% 26% 24% -23.1%
≤90d 641 -16.0% -24.0% 26% 24% -23.1%
all 641 -16.0% -24.0% 26% 24% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 24% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 23% -30.5%
15% -37.9% 21% -37.2%
20% -44.0% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses165 / 476
Open positions30
Markets (closed)641 / 531
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day152.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+419%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+258%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $0 $5 +$4 (+1259%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+110%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 53¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+279%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 65¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 27¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+211%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 15 $4 +$18 +462%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 +429%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2242%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -373%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -242%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16? Jun 15 $0 −$18 -7198%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -178%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23? Jun 15 $8 −$12 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 15 $13 −$14 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2511%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? Jun 15 $1 −$10 -754%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -4908%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 18? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 10? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? Jun 15 $4 −$11 -291%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.94 · official $101.91 (match) · 3500 history records