Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bc1…b473 crypto 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-2%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate61%237W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$375
14 days−$375
30 days−$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -14.4% -22.6% 74% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 386 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 26% -13.5%
≤90d 386 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 26% -13.5%
all 386 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 26% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 26% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 26% -21.8%
15% -31.3% 26% -29.3%
20% -38.0% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses237 / 149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)386 / 386
History coverage24d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 386 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $602 +$24 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $194 +$6 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $391 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $594 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $243 −$240 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $791 +$8 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $300 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $402 +$28 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $285 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $79 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $322 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $68 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $142 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $125 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $24 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $62 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $151 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $80 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $90 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $300 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $301 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $185 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $98 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $194 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1575 history records