Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bc0…338e other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$11
other 26% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 9 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 0% -11.5%
all 31 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage470d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $46 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $46 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $65 −$14 -21%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $27 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 3h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $13 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $54 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $54 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $38 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $12 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $7 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $40 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 110 history records