Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bc0…47e5 other 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,058 (-19%) realized −$484 · open −$574
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%78W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$57
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,068
world 27% −$240
crypto 15% +$317
finance 3% −$113
sports 2% −$16
politics 2% −$24
culture 1% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -64.2% -67.6% 30% 30% -59.7%
≤90d 21 -35.6% -41.7% 48% 38% -25.8%
all 163 -16.6% -24.6% 48% 31% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 31% -21.5%
10% -31.8% 20% -29.0%
15% -38.4% 18% -35.9%
20% -44.4% 13% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized−$484
Unrealized−$574
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses78 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)163 / 197
History coverage402d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 100¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 92¢ 89¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $225 $59 −$165 (-74%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 87¢ 87¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 39¢ 10¢ $206 $50 −$156 (-76%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 83¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 79¢ 81¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+46%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 59¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 57¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+789%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 26 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand May 03 $5 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 03 $15 +$3 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? May 03 $20 +$8 +41%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 03 $20 +$16 +79%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 03 $40 +$1 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? May 03 $50 +$20 +41%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 17 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 17 $70 +$10 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 09 $35 +$3 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Mar 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Pr Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $75 +$95 +127%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 03 $11 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 01 $10 +$11 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $53 1h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 94¢ $50 2h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 92¢ $20 2h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $101 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 38¢ $10 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $5 13d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 94¢ $15 15d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 15d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 90¢ $10 20d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 20d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 84¢ $9 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 27d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $50 31d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 31d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY No 98¢ $84 55d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 55d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 55d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $14 55d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.63 · official $686.63 (match) · 645 history records