Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8bc0…12e6 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$391 (+12%) realized +$452 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate76%32W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 36% +$994
other 29% −$251
crypto 10% −$138
politics 10% −$273
sports 9% +$16
world 4% +$4
tech 2% +$1
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +139.7% +116.8% 100% 100% +116.8%
≤30d 1 +139.7% +116.8% 100% 100% +116.8%
≤90d 28 +16.6% +5.5% 96% 36% +43.4%
all 42 +2.8% -7.0% 76% 36% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 36% +3.5%
10% -15.9% 29% -6.4%
15% -24.0% 19% -15.4%
20% -31.5% 10% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$73 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized+$452
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses32 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage143d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 22¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Apr 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? Apr 29 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%? Apr 29 $101 +$26 +26%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Mar 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Mar 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 27 $40 +$1 +3%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Mar 27 $70 +$1 +2%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? Mar 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026? Mar 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%? Mar 27 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Mar 27 $160 +$23 +14%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4% Mar 27 $200 +$90 +45%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? Mar 27 $520 +$809 +156%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Mar 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Carson Schwesinger be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Y Mar 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Mar 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Will it Snow in Washington D.C. this weekend (January 24 - 26)? Mar 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Mar 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary Mar 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Scorigami in Week 3 of NFL Playoffs? Mar 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Mar 27 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Mar 27 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 02 $120 −$3 -3%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 27 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 27 $170 −$168 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 27 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 26 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 26 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ryanair say "Weather" during earnings call? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 44d
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? BUY No 92¢ $50 46d
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? BUY No 88¢ $50 46d
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 46d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4% BUY No 67¢ $100 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 80d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%? BUY No 78¢ $100 81d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4% BUY No 72¢ $100 81d
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 81d
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 126d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? BUY No 0¢ $10 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.95 · official $675.95 (match) · 109 history records