Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8bbe…3267 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,153 (-7%) realized −$1,153 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days−$1,715
14 days−$1,581
30 days−$1,582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$584
sports 14% −$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.3% +16.0% 57% 57% -42.9%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 54% 54% -37.2%
≤90d 21 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 48% -21.1%
all 21 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 48% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -21.1%
10% -21.2% 38% -28.6%
15% -28.8% 33% -35.5%
20% -35.8% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$786) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$290 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1,153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage76d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 41¢ 42¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 25 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,010 +$399 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $940 −$935 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $786 −$773 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 +$95 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $675 −$672 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $269 +$97 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $193 +$76 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1,234 +$119 +10%
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $1,078 +$156 +14%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $816 +$263 +32%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $786 +$32 +4%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Apr 12 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 12 $27 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 39¢ $3,628 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 72¢ $2,414 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $940 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $786 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 24¢ $256 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $199 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $675 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $269 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $193 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $4 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 15d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 37¢ $3 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 15d
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 48¢ $3 15d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 15d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,234 60d
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,078 61d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,078 61d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $816 61d
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-04-26? SELL No 90¢ $818 61d
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY No 86¢ $786 61d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $38 75d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 75d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 75d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 42¢ $26 75d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 79¢ $150 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.67 · official $3,606.96 · 41 history records