Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8B 0x8bbe…11df crypto 775 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-6%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%353W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$153
14 days−$181
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$208
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -33.2% -39.6% 13% 11% -46.6%
≤30d 217 -22.5% -29.9% 24% 21% -27.8%
≤90d 795 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 42% -14.5%
all 795 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 42% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 42% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 36% -22.6%
15% -30.8% 31% -30.1%
20% -37.5% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses353 / 442
Open positions1
Markets (closed)795 / 775
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $3.12 (match) · 3500 history records