Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bbe…9384 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,543 (-13%) realized −$2,542 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,051per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$3,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$2,676
crypto 15% +$133
other 13% +$41
finance 10% −$162
world 8% +$121
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 -26.1% -33.2% 67% 33% -83.1%
≤90d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 38% -51.7%
all 18 -2.0% -11.4% 67% 28% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 28% -21.2%
10% -19.8% 17% -28.8%
15% -27.6% 11% -35.6%
20% -34.7% 6% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,755) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$922 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage179d
Avg bet$1,051
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $305 $304 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $393 +$4 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $304 +$62 +20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? May 29 $254 +$19 +7%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? May 24 $272 +$36 +13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $253 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,078 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 07 $647 +$203 +31%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $1,043 −$14 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 23 $1,260 −$365 -29%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Mar 13 $72 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Mar 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $1,300 +$40 +3%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs TYLOO (BO3) - Yuqilin Pinnacle of Battl Mar 02 $2,052 +$1,548 +75%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 08 $2,555 +$945 +37%
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Jan 24 $1,755 −$1,755 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 19 $2,900 +$133 +5%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 04 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $305 1h
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $398 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $98 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $241 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $120 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $51 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $60 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $180 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $24 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $24 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $24 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $28 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $213 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $340 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $173 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $53 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $495 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $118 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $22 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $105 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $15 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $204 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $68 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $29 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.46 · official $304.46 (match) · 130 history records