Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8bb8…0802 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 13% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 19 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -10.6%
10% -23.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage441d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 18 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 04 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 7h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $45 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $44 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $43 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $11 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.59 · official $44.59 (match) · 74 history records