Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bb8…03e0 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$5
other 27% −$40
politics 13% −$5
crypto 8% $0
sports 6% +$11
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 9% -8.7%
all 40 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 10% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 10% -11.7%
10% -17.9% 5% -20.2%
15% -25.8% 2% -27.9%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage302d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $85 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $53 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $42 +$6 +15%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $7 $0 +5%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $42 $0 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $32 +$11 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 09 $36 −$5 -13%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $18 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $26 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $51 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records