Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8bb6…98fa sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,247 (+30%) realized +$2,245 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$2,017
14 days+$2,017
30 days+$2,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,544
other 26% +$599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.0% +3.2% 65% 65% +17.3%
≤30d 17 +14.0% +3.2% 65% 65% +17.3%
≤90d 17 +14.0% +3.2% 65% 65% +17.3%
all 61 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 44% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 44% +16.9%
10% -28.2% 41% +5.7%
15% -35.1% 36% -4.5%
20% -41.5% 31% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$29 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$2,245
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage558d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group B Donstu Esports 76¢ 76¢ $219 $220 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs QUAZAR (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group B ex-RUBY 66¢ 68¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul Jun 25 $99 +$45 +46%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $63 +$18 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $280 +$664 +238%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $101 −$77 -76%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $506 −$506 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $101 +$95 +93%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $703 +$96 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $950 −$127 -13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $801 +$127 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $1,002 +$755 +75%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $520 +$237 +46%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $304 +$213 +70%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $506 +$341 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $756 +$258 +34%
Athletics vs. Red Sox Sep 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cubs vs. Pirates Sep 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Reds vs. Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Aug 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Cubs vs. Giants: O/U 7.5 Aug 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Padres vs. Cardinals Aug 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Padres vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers May 21 $3 +$4 +133%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 11 $4 +$4 +104%
Ducks vs. Oilers Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Hawks Jan 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Heat vs. Bucks Jan 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jan 24 $19 +$11 +59%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Jan 24 $30 +$10 +33%
Golden Knights vs. Blues Jan 24 $27 +$20 +72%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Chargers Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Chiefs vs. Browns Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Blues Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bengals vs. Titans Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22? Jan 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Jan 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Jets vs. Jaguars Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Stars Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Colts vs. Broncos Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Vikings vs. Seahawks Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Jan 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jan 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Thunder vs. Magic Jan 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Sabres vs. Canucks Jan 22 $39 +$61 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 76¢ $220 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs QUAZAR (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualif BUY ex-RUBY 66¢ $40 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 25h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 14¢ $25 25h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $101 26h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 77¢ $63 32h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 29¢ $280 32h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY DRX Academy 68¢ $99 34h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $506 37h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $801 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 88¢ $703 2d
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 25¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 57¢ $950 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $520 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 55¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $991 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 55¢ $11 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $304 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $756 4d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 59¢ $506 4d
Athletics vs. Red Sox BUY Red Sox 60¢ $3 282d
Cubs vs. Pirates BUY Pirates 54¢ $1 282d
Cubs vs. Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 302d
Reds vs. Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 302d
Padres vs. Cardinals BUY Padres 45¢ $2 336d
Padres vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 59¢ $2 374d
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers BUY Diamondbacks 43¢ $3 402d
Jets vs. Stars BUY Jets 49¢ $4 441d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.28 · official $260.28 (match) · 139 history records