Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8bb5…fd5e crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate95%121W / 7L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$42
crypto 39% +$20
other 0% −$5
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 17% -9.1%
≤90d 25 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 128 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 14% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 8% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses121 / 7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)128 / 133
History coverage624d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? Jun 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 28 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 21 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? May 08 $202 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? May 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? Apr 22 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $207 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 27? Mar 28 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 18 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 09 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 28? Mar 01 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 16? Feb 16 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 1 Feb 02 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $188 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $96 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $94 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 12d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $109 15d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 88¢ $5 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $194 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $194 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $195 49d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $183 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $183 69d
Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 72d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2 72d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $3 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $187 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $197 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $189 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $6 79d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $203 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $207 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $194 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $194 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $192 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.93 · official $116.93 (match) · 352 history records