Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bb1…48a4 world 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$6
other 19% +$3
politics 17% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.4% -16.2% 10% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 21 -4.6% -13.7% 29% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 21 -4.6% -13.7% 29% 0% -10.4%
all 55 -1.7% -11.1% 24% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage307d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $26 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $4 −$2 -46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $75 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $22 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -7%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 -3%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $7 $0 -4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $118K on August 22? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 5m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $2 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records