Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bae…bc21 crypto 42 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%30W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day125.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 38% -11.1%
≤30d 42 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 38% -11.1%
≤90d 42 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 38% -11.1%
all 42 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 38% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 38% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 19% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 12% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses30 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day125.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +276%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records