Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8bac…cb3f other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,435 (-4%) realized −$2,344 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate65%44W / 24L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days−$597
30 days−$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$620
other 27% −$1,184
world 24% −$313
crypto 9% −$381
economics 5% +$62
finance 1% −$42
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 19 -28.1% -34.9% 47% 5% -16.1%
≤90d 34 -15.8% -23.8% 62% 3% -11.8%
all 68 -14.0% -22.2% 65% 1% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 1% -13.3%
10% -29.6% 0% -21.6%
15% -36.4% 0% -29.2%
20% -42.7% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$146 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$5,853
Realized−$2,344
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses44 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)68 / 84
History coverage224d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,218 $1,222 +$3 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $692 $705 +$14 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $694 $688 −$6 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 42¢ 46¢ $579 $621 +$42 (+7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $336 $322 −$14 (-4%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $292 $298 +$6 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $281 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 87¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $80 $87 +$7 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 87¢ $91 $87 −$4 (-5%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes 85¢ 6¢ $178 $12 −$167 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,831 +$9 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 18 $100 −$7 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 18 $389 −$43 -11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $3,382 +$66 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $360 +$10 +3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 10 $605 −$600 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $102 −$35 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1,885 +$13 +1%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 05 $470 +$10 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 27 $740 +$40 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $196 −$2 -1%
Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law i May 26 $18 −$18 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 26 $25 −$2 -10%
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in May? May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 25 $490 +$70 +14%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 14 $800 +$7 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 14 $900 +$4 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $2,000 +$8 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $944 −$98 -10%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Apr 21 $2,748 +$148 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $210 +$20 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Apr 21 $252 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 18 $491 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 18 $200 −$59 -30%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $1,295 +$22 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $600 +$9 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 10 $733 +$5 +1%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $273 +$27 +10%
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Mar 30 $260 +$7 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 27 $2,787 +$76 +3%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Mar 23 $479 +$20 +4%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Mar 23 $335 −$233 -70%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $900 +$8 +1%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 14 $781 +$6 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $2,000 +$5 +0%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 02 $3,544 +$209 +6%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $751 +$19 +2%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 20 $856 −$8 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 12 $2,850 −$702 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 06 $1,833 −$262 -14%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Feb 03 $300 +$5 +2%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 03 $299 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $295 +$3 +1%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jan 27 $150 −$60 -40%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Jan 25 $500 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $696 1h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $282 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $1 45h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $3 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 51¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1,840 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $93 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 24¢ $346 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $94 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $389 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $49 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $3 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $3 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $15 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $18 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $2 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $2 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $3 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $6 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 42¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,852.70 · official $5,852.70 (match) · 616 history records