Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bac…cf49
weather · 679 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,038 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,447 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$272
Realized−$8,447
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses131 / 697
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)828 / 679
History coverage53d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 32 History 828 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,610
7 days−$10,528
14 days−$9,895
30 days−$9,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 99¢ $7 $33 +$26 (+369%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 18 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22? Jun 14 $46 −$48 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 9? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28? Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 8? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Jun 14 $64 −$27 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 22? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 16 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 21? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 16 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 14 $17 −$6 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on March 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 13? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19? Jun 14 $38 −$40 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3? Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$2,287
other 1% +$13
politics 0% −$109
sports 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $47 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 62¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -79.5% -81.4% 5% 4% -76.0%
≤30d 524 -48.4% -53.3% 11% 10% -51.6%
≤90d 828 -33.0% -39.3% 16% 13% -33.5%
all 828 -33.0% -39.3% 16% 13% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 13% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 11% -39.9%
15% -50.4% 10% -45.7%
20% -55.3% 10% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.44 · official $272.44 (match) · 3500 history records