Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bab…9555 crypto 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$415 (-7%) realized −$412 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%139W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$414
14 days−$781
30 days−$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$704
sports 5% −$85
world 0% +$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 42% -19.6%
≤30d 292 -17.7% -25.6% 48% 40% -23.1%
≤90d 292 -17.7% -25.6% 48% 40% -23.1%
all 292 -17.7% -25.6% 48% 40% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 40% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 33% -30.5%
15% -39.2% 28% -37.2%
20% -45.1% 19% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$412
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses139 / 153
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)292 / 297
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.63 · official $26.63 (match) · 618 history records