Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8bab…f30e sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+23%) realized +$114 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$111
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% +23.4%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% +23.4%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% +23.4%
all 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% +23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% +23.4%
10% -17.6% 50% +11.6%
15% -25.6% 33% +0.8%
20% -32.9% 17% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$6 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.18 per $1 lost it wins $10.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$12 +114%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $149 +$68 +46%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $121 +$41 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $61 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $111 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 13h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 45¢ $11 13h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $149 25h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY 2¢ $3 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 13¢ $14 44h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 45h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.63 · official $168.63 (match) · 15 history records