Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8baa…f299 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,695 (-38%) realized −$5,488 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,140per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$5,185
crypto 10% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 4 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 4 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% +0.2%
all 5 -22.8% -30.1% 40% 40% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 40% -45.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 40% -50.9%
15% -42.9% 40% -55.6%
20% -48.5% 20% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$558 vs −$2,101 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized−$5,488
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage155d
Avg bet$2,140
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $335 $124 −$211 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $978 +$632 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $762 −$542 -71%
OKX IPO in 2026? Mar 13 $9,975 −$5,512 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $90 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $36 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $295 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $627.74 · official $627.74 (match) · 62 history records