Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8ba8…23a6 crypto 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$452 (-8%) realized −$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate77%302W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$33
14 days−$22
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$382
other 5% +$2
politics 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 +2.4% -7.4% 84% 71% -10.2%
≤30d 354 +2.2% -7.5% 83% 70% -11.0%
≤90d 387 -0.9% -10.4% 78% 66% -16.6%
all 391 -0.4% -9.9% 77% 65% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 65% -15.6%
10% -18.5% 17% -23.7%
15% -26.4% 11% -31.1%
20% -33.6% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses302 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 391
History coverage93d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $37 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $36 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 853 history records