Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

8B 0x8ba4…3668 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$33 (+17%) realized +$34 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-12.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-3.6%	-12.8%	67%	67%	+16.8%
≤30d	3	-3.6%	-12.8%	67%	67%	+16.8%
≤90d	3	-3.6%	-12.8%	67%	67%	+16.8%
all	3	-3.6%	-12.8%	67%	67%	+16.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.8%	67%	+16.8%
10%	-21.1%	67%	+5.6%
15%	-28.8%	33%	-4.6%
20%	-35.7%	33%	-13.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized+$34

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$81	$80	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$62	+$20	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$39	+$22	+57%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$82	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$62	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$62	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$39	25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.23 · official $80.24 (match) · 6 history records