Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b9f…adf3
crypto · 72 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$46 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Modo Serio 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 04 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 04 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 04 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 04 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$15
other 14% −$17
sports 8% −$13
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 46m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.4% -32.5% 43% 14% -53.4%
≤30d 14 -25.4% -32.5% 43% 14% -53.4%
≤90d 70 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 27% -34.7%
all 70 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 27% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 27% -34.7%
10% -36.1% 19% -41.0%
15% -42.3% 14% -46.7%
20% -47.9% 10% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 195 history records