Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b9d…9b0e sports 1018 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,197 (-14%) realized −$5,273 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%288W / 693L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$509est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days−$318
14 days−$412
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$4,516
other 9% −$1,384
crypto 0% −$71
world 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 24% -20.0%
≤30d 321 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 29% -16.1%
≤90d 913 -34.1% -40.4% 25% 24% -35.9%
all 981 -22.1% -29.5% 29% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 28% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 27% -32.1%
15% -42.4% 26% -38.7%
20% -48.1% 25% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$29 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$5,273
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses288 / 693
Est. fees paid−$509
Open positions9
Markets (closed)981 / 1018
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 981 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 100¢ $67 $202 +$135 (+200%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 49¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$14 (-89%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 387 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 30 $36 −$14 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $61 −$12 -20%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $28 −$7 -26%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $91 −$91 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $86 −$54 -62%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $35 +$1 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 Jun 29 $25 +$70 +279%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $65 +$134 +205%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $38 +$28 +72%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $66 +$46 +70%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $11 +$84 +732%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $21 −$9 -45%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $21 −$2 -12%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $18 −$18 -99%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $23 +$13 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $46 +$53 +117%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$13 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $31 +$100 +325%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $36 −$35 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$21 +140%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $82 +$174 +212%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL No 31¢ $22 3m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 49¢ $25 15m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 49¢ $36 17m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $6 28m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 43m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $13 43m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 58m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $43 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 25¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 34¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $28 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 52¢ $33 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 13¢ $15 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 42¢ $31 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $41 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $20 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $37 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $35 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $91 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.66 · official $283.74 (match) · 3500 history records