Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8B 0x8b9a…7d40 other 8 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$286 (+14%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$336
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% +0.4%
≤30d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% +0.4%
≤90d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% +0.4%
all 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 38% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 38% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 25% -9.2%
15% -35.2% 12% -17.9%
20% -41.6% 12% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$42 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $71 −$61 -85%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $641 +$132 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$70 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $607 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$195 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $47 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 32¢ $102 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $49 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 92¢ $460 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $374 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $608 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $607 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records