Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b97…cfc1 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,209 (-7%) realized −$1,209 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$748
14 days−$745
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,216
sports 45% −$573
politics 3% +$703
crypto 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -36.4% -42.5% 45% 45% -17.1%
≤90d 13 -38.5% -44.3% 46% 38% -15.8%
all 48 -24.9% -32.0% 44% 27% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 27% -16.5%
10% -38.5% 25% -24.5%
15% -44.5% 23% -31.8%
20% -49.9% 17% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$182 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage542d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $363 −$360 -99%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $7 +$3 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $202 +$72 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $242 +$101 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,348 +$235 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $581 −$580 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1,011 +$571 +56%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $1,399 +$9 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 Dec 09 $145 −$145 -100%
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $244 −$99 -41%
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) Dec 07 $50 +$44 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04? Sep 04 $200 −$200 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) Jul 17 $258 −$258 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) Jul 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemund Jul 08 $50 −$50 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance) Jul 01 $50 −$50 -100%
RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Inter Miami beat Palmeiras? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Inter Milan beat River Plate? Jun 26 $674 +$34 +5%
Juventus vs. Wydad AC: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 22 $215 +$59 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Jun 22 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? Jun 19 $1,450 +$43 +3%
Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Romania U21 beat Spain U21? Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Netherlands U21 vs. Denmark U21 end in a draw? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Czechia beat Croatia? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Poland beat Finland? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $220 +$780 +354%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $1,153 +$664 +58%
New Pope announced by May 9? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $450 +$703 +156%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw? May 07 $500 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Mar 11 $175 −$175 -100%
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol Feb 23 $168 +$6 +4%
Joshua Buatsi vs. Callum Smith Feb 22 $661 +$8 +1%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? Jan 26 $25 +$35 +142%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? Jan 19 $609 +$16 +3%
Will Chelsea vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jan 15 $40 +$68 +170%
Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27? Dec 29 $549 +$11 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? Dec 26 $500 +$49 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 47h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $363 2d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $7 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 100¢ $274 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 73¢ $202 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 70¢ $242 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1,348 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 94¢ $581 21d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 63¢ $1,011 24d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,399 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $145 189d
UFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Guskov 84¢ $244 192d
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Duncan 100¢ $94 192d
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Duncan 53¢ $50 192d
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 286d
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) BUY Sweden 49¢ $258 334d
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemund BUY Siegemund 16¢ $50 344d
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) BUY Juventus $50 350d
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? BUY Yes $50 351d
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance) BUY Inter Milan 18¢ $50 351d
RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid: 4+ Goals Scored? BUY Yes 47¢ $200 355d
Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $50 355d
Will Inter Milan beat River Plate? BUY Yes 95¢ $674 356d
Will Inter Miami beat Palmeiras? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,000 358d
Juventus vs. Wydad AC: 3+ Goals Scored? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 360d
Juventus vs. Wydad AC: 3+ Goals Scored? BUY Yes 78¢ $215 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records