Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b97…6c05 other 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,794 (-1%) realized −$1,792 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%41W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$705now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$53
other 34% −$180
sports 20% −$1,535
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$38
crypto 2% +$2
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -16.4% -24.4% 11% 2% -12.2%
all 123 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 11% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -10.8%
10% -17.4% 11% -19.3%
15% -25.4% 11% -27.1%
20% -32.7% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,424) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$705
Realized−$1,792
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses41 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $707 $705 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,791 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,142 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,543 −$7 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,258 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,335 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $293 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $486 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,318 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $234 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $384 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,832 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,748 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5,201 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $134 $0 -0%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 10 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,007 −$2 -0%
Islanders vs. Devils Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12? Mar 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Mar 27 $94 −$94 -100%
Canadiens vs. Wild Mar 27 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $204 4m
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $205 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $707 45h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $970 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $971 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,057 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,066 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $704.79 · official $704.79 (match) · 430 history records