Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8b95…d3cb sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-13%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 16% 11% -8.7%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 16% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 16% 11% -8.7%
all 19 +0.3% -9.3% 16% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 11% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 11% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 11% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 53¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 30¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +205%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 1m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 3m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $2 7m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $2 10m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $2 11m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $2 15m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 47¢ $2 15m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $2 18m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $3 20m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 30¢ $2 21m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 47¢ $2 21m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $2 25m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 27m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 30m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 31m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 35m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 45m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 43¢ $2 51m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $2 53m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2 55m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 3h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $2 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 38¢ $2 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $2 5h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 49 history records