Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b92…f08d crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%78W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$118
economics 11% −$2
crypto 11% +$52
finance 4% −$1
other 2% +$37
sports 0% +$19
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.1% +2.4% 100% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 93% 29% -23.4%
all 85 +0.6% -9.0% 92% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$41 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses78 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage236d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 90¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 19 $120 +$1 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 07 $105 +$5 +5%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $101 +$4 +4%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 21 $120 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 13 $120 +$3 +3%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 07 $120 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $120 $0 +0%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 23 $110 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 16 $245 −$245 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $212 +$18 +9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $110 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $103 +$13 +12%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 16 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $205 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 25 $202 +$2 +1%
Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $2,432 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $29,221 +$26 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $3,946 +$38 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $2,381 +$19 +1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $7,048 −$2 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $4,627 +$12 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $2,398 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $1,189 +$10 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 15 $2,390 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $2,298 +$2 +0%
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? Feb 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 14 $175 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 6? Feb 10 $180 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $1 $0 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 06 $170 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $105 1h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $120 12d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $104 24d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $1 24d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 38d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 89¢ $1 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 50d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 87¢ $1 51d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 58d
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $245 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $212 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $110 95d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 89¢ $103 95d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $9 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $17 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $23 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $10 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $50 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th BUY Yes 96¢ $1 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $199 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 107d
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $200 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.29 · official $103.29 (match) · 444 history records