Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8b91…e80f other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-14%) realized −$23 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$10
crypto 32% −$21
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 33% -7.6%
≤30d 12 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 33% -7.6%
≤90d 12 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 33% -7.6%
all 12 -31.9% -38.4% 42% 33% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 33% -7.6%
10% -44.3% 33% -16.5%
15% -49.7% 25% -24.5%
20% -54.6% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 40¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $72 +$49 +69%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.71 · official $106.39 (match) · 20 history records