Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b8d…6724 sports 662 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,268 (-6%) realized −$6,109 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%344W / 311L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$4,314
14 days−$3,165
30 days−$4,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$3,074
world 18% −$1,952
tech 9% −$150
other 9% −$1,181
finance 7% +$160
crypto 4% +$579
weather 2% −$90
politics 1% +$62
economics 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -53.1% -57.5% 23% 22% -41.6%
≤30d 150 -26.9% -33.9% 35% 31% -21.4%
≤90d 429 -18.9% -26.6% 49% 34% -16.0%
all 655 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 36% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -14.1%
10% -25.5% 26% -22.3%
15% -32.7% 21% -29.8%
20% -39.3% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$86 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1,672
Realized−$6,109
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses344 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions7
Markets (closed)655 / 662
History coverage230d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 66¢ 86¢ $332 $432 +$101 (+30%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $426 $402 −$23 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $272 $280 +$8 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $230 $262 +$32 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $164 $179 +$15 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $154 $113 −$41 (-27%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $253 $2 −$250 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $113 −$11 -10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $206 +$94 +46%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $130 −$75 -58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $113 −$7 -6%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $134 −$61 -45%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $132 −$94 -71%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $296 +$154 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $164 +$102 +62%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 26 $398 −$85 -21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $211 −$207 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $219 −$216 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $215 −$212 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $239 +$161 +67%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $224 +$176 +78%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $146 −$46 -32%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 24 $565 +$102 +18%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Jun 24 $444 +$138 +31%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $170 −$168 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $251 −$248 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $235 +$165 +70%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $113 +$11 +10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $170 −$64 -38%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $128 −$126 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 −$202 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $140 +$160 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $135 +$65 +48%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $81 −$80 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $115 +$85 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $199 +$169 +85%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $121 −$119 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $185 +$85 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $125 −$52 -41%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $166 −$31 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $381 −$381 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 22 $178 −$178 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 22 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 25m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 51¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 56¢ $113 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $251 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $55 18h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $130 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $206 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $106 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 25¢ $73 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $38 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $119 23h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $13 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $134 23h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $54 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $296 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $69 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 89¢ $266 43h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 23¢ $40 45h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 23¢ $56 45h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 23¢ $6 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $164 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $171 2d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 32¢ $82 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,671.99 · official $1,661.99 (match) · 3086 history records