Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b8d…39da crypto 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (965 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$465 (+11%) realized +$505 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%81W / 156L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day965.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$484
other 6% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (965 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -6.8% -15.6% 34% 32% +1.1%
≤30d 237 -6.8% -15.6% 34% 32% +1.1%
≤90d 237 -6.8% -15.6% 34% 32% +1.1%
all 237 -6.8% -15.6% 34% 32% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover965.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 32% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -8.6%
15% -31.1% 27% -17.4%
20% -37.8% 26% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$505
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses81 / 156
Open positions2
Markets (closed)237 / 239
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day965.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +106%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$16 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -87%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -84%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$36 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$32 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $118 +$116 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -73%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$23 -63%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$20 +106%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$46 -86%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -89%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -78%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -87%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$16 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $73 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$22 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$16 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 10m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 35m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 40m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 52m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $18 53m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 56m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 983 history records