Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8B 0x8b89…9f72 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-4.5%	-13.6%	67%	67%	-43.3%
≤30d	6	-4.5%	-13.6%	67%	67%	-43.3%
≤90d	6	-4.5%	-13.6%	67%	67%	-43.3%
all	6	-4.5%	-13.6%	67%	67%	-43.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.6%	67%	-43.3%
10%	-21.9%	67%	-48.8%
15%	-29.4%	33%	-53.7%
20%	-36.4%	17%	-58.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$76 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$101	−$101	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$8	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 16	$102	+$28	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+68%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$101	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$5	6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	58¢	$3	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.62 · official $49.62 (match) · 18 history records