Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b89…98d6 sports 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$362 (+3%) realized +$364 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%404W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$261
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 83 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 57% -18.8%
≤90d 546 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 58% -3.5%
all 705 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 57% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 57% -7.7%
10% -18.9% 55% -16.5%
15% -26.7% 48% -24.6%
20% -33.9% 36% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$364
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses404 / 301
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage135d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jelena Ostapenko 78¢ 76¢ $89 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $19 −$19 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $19 +$10 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $10 +$12 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $9 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $8 +$11 +140%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $10 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $5 +$15 +291%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $1 +$1 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $15 +$6 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $4 +$8 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $19 +$6 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $7 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $2 +$2 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $10 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $4 +$2 +46%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $4 +$3 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $5 +$4 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $8 +$5 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $5 +$4 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $1 $0 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Snigur vs Peyton Stearns May 27 $2 +$1 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $9 +$6 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 27 $5 +$2 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones BUY Jelena Ostapenko 78¢ $90 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $10 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $19 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 6¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Mirra Andreeva 66¢ $19 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 43¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 40¢ $9 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 66¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $6 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 39¢ $5 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 41¢ $8 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong 8¢ $5 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 25¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys BUY Victoria Mboko 53¢ $10 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 48¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 28¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 48¢ $10 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jaime Faria 38¢ $4 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 37¢ $4 23d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $1 24d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $1 24d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $1 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 72¢ $15 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 77¢ $19 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $4 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 72¢ $8 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 81¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.39 · official $87.39 (match) · 1167 history records