Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b88…5f5e sports 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 713d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,228 (-3%) realized −$30,545 · open +$5,317
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%145W / 37L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,105per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$81,655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$3,930
14 days+$3,930
30 days+$15,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$55,947
politics 30% +$549
other 20% +$14,113
crypto 9% +$12,289
culture 3% −$221
sports 2% +$3,510
economics 1% +$260
tech 0% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 50% +5.5%
≤30d 6 +14.4% +3.5% 83% 50% +8.3%
≤90d 30 +3.7% -6.2% 77% 23% -17.9%
all 182 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 30% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 30% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 13% -21.6%
15% -28.2% 7% -29.2%
20% -35.3% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$2,218 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

713d coverage
Net worth$81,655
Realized−$30,545
Unrealized+$5,317
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses145 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions18
Markets (closed)182 / 200
History coverage713d
Avg bet$4,105
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $27,044 $29,839 +$2,795 (+10%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $9,000 $9,534 +$534 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $7,376 $7,410 +$34 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $4,797 $5,055 +$258 (+5%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $3,965 $3,967 +$1 (+0%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 91¢ 95¢ $3,627 $3,793 +$166 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $2,957 $3,746 +$789 (+27%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $3,500 $3,579 +$79 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $3,125 $2,979 −$146 (-5%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,875 $2,970 +$95 (+3%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $2,275 $2,417 +$142 (+6%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2,260 $1,847 −$413 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1,108 $1,778 +$670 (+60%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $940 +$340 (+57%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $631 $674 +$43 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $620 $540 −$80 (-13%)
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $439 $448 +$9 (+2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $1,636 +$341 +21%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7,187 +$2,726 +38%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $12,553 +$638 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,352 +$224 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52,879 +$11,899 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $2,426 −$227 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $132,991 $0 +0%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4,994 +$499 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $7,467 +$155 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $8,657 +$933 +11%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 06 $1,001 +$182 +18%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 06 $5,002 +$244 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $61,849 −$61,848 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 05 $27,020 −$121 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $33,459 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 01 $2,250 −$390 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $25,350 +$1,345 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 30 $2,014 +$204 +10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Apr 30 $2,021 +$94 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 30 $10,007 +$179 +2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 29 $1,660 +$60 +4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $21,560 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $11,897 +$559 +5%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 03 $1,649 +$73 +4%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $3,138 +$223 +7%
Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition Apr 01 $215 +$20 +10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $512 +$98 +19%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Apr 01 $963 +$47 +5%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,000 +$182 +18%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $2,907 +$93 +3%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Mar 19 $55 −$55 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $469 +$3 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 09 $1,046 +$3 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $1,106 +$53 +5%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $5,000 +$171 +3%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Mar 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $1,393 +$266 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $2,000 +$65 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $3,000 +$109 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Mar 01 $75 +$25 +33%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $6,408 +$1,010 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1,502 −$1,494 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $7,625 −$7,598 -100%
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Featur Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $1,111 +$71 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $1,577 +$156 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Feb 13 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 10 $5,305 +$142 +3%
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? Feb 03 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,800 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 2h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $102 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $29 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $29 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $90 4h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $92 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $91 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $0 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $92 6h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $182 7h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $92 7h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $205 8h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $205 8h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $10 9h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $2 9h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 11h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $91 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $242 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $66 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $75 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $97 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $182 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $91 12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $6 13h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $1 13h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81,655.31 · official $81,655.95 (match) · 2233 history records