Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8b87…3e8d other 55 markets active 10h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,956 (+8%) realized +$3,150 · open +$11,806
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3,484per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$106,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,025
30 days+$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% +$2,144
other 21% +$5,430
crypto 17% +$5,593
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +8.7% -1.6% 76% 48% -8.3%
≤90d 25 +5.2% -4.8% 72% 40% -7.6%
all 25 +5.2% -4.8% 72% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 40% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 24% -16.5%
15% -22.3% 16% -24.5%
20% -29.9% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,807) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$384 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$106,141
Realized+$3,150
Unrealized+$11,806
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)25 / 55
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3,484
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 90¢ 99¢ $25,811 $28,329 +$2,518 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 85¢ 92¢ $18,164 $19,551 +$1,386 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 85¢ $11,156 $13,629 +$2,473 (+22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $7,341 $8,082 +$740 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 79¢ $3,709 $5,606 +$1,897 (+51%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,878 $5,426 +$548 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $4,757 $4,982 +$226 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 82¢ 100¢ $3,171 $3,834 +$663 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,691 $3,778 +$87 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 81¢ 100¢ $1,791 $2,216 +$425 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,382 $1,530 +$147 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,323 $1,478 +$155 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,360 $1,358 −$2 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $1,062 $1,266 +$204 (+19%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $963 $1,066 +$104 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $915 $977 +$62 (+7%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $461 $502 +$40 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $426 $464 +$38 (+9%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $423 $463 +$40 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 80¢ 84¢ $398 $420 +$21 (+5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $260 $303 +$42 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 64¢ 78¢ $193 $234 +$40 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 54¢ 46¢ $272 $232 −$39 (-14%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $156 $109 −$47 (-30%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 65¢ 99¢ $68 $104 +$36 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $30,613 −$813 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $397 −$212 -54%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 10 $26 +$25 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $48 −$45 -94%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $46 +$4 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $952 +$41 +4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $131 +$69 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,831 +$164 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 31 $817 +$35 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $250 +$309 +124%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? May 30 $928 +$181 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $1,239 +$185 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 30 $1,807 +$189 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $1,325 +$340 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 30 $1,063 +$687 +65%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 28 $213 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $3,692 +$442 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 26 $1,859 −$971 -52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 24 $341 −$213 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 06 $11,119 +$885 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 12 $3,328 +$18 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 10 $715 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY No 79¢ $48 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 93¢ $47 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $450 19h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? BUY No 80¢ $162 32h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $457 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $457 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $901 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 88¢ $3,385 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $589 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $486 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $410 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,925 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,757 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,717 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $107 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $3,516 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $3,803 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $7,765 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $628 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $1,569 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $119 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $24 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $314 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $189 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $797 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $24 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $187 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,141.38 · official $106,247.19 (match) · 583 history records