Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b87…0fdd other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+17%) realized +$181 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%32W / 33L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$45
14 days+$111
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$206
other 43% −$29
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.0% -23.1% 54% 54% -22.5%
≤30d 55 -17.8% -25.7% 51% 49% +3.6%
≤90d 65 -18.5% -26.3% 49% 48% +5.9%
all 65 -18.5% -26.3% 49% 48% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 48% +5.9%
10% -33.3% 40% -4.2%
15% -39.8% 35% -13.5%
20% -45.7% 23% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses32 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage58d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$5 +26%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$2 +13%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND France to score first vs. Ira Jun 23 $1 +$1 +51%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $147 +$117 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $71 +$68 +96%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$6 -66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 67¢ $26 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $12 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $11 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $5 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.97 · official $57.97 (match) · 118 history records