Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b85…55f5 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$691 (+24%) realized +$691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1
other 27% −$468
crypto 4% +$1,078
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +21.0% +9.5% 22% 22% +9.4%
≤30d 68 +21.0% +9.5% 22% 22% +9.4%
≤90d 68 +21.0% +9.5% 22% 22% +9.4%
all 68 +21.0% +9.5% 22% 22% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 22% +9.4%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 22% -1.1%
15% -10.6% 22% -10.6%
20% -19.3% 22% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$45 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage3d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$7 -68%
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $34 +$180 +535%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $12 +$52 +432%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $4 +$23 +630%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $12 +$12 +100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $12 +$38 +320%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
DR Congo to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $12 +$42 +350%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $12 +$104 +864%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $12 +$72 +600%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $22 +$95 +431%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +188%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $11 +$19 +180%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $12 +$12 +100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $120 +$1,068 +890%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
ITF Porto: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Francisco Rocha Jun 26 $156 −$156 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 93¢ $111 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 85¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY No 10¢ $12 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 50¢ $13 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 54¢ $51 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 10¢ $12 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $12 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 4¢ $0 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 10¢ $12 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $12 2h
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY No 8¢ $0 3h
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY No 8¢ $9 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $6 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 73¢ $26 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $12 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records