Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b82…2e22 sports 208 markets active 5h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$183
14 days−$363
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$13
politics 11% −$15
other 10% −$151
tech 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -17.9% -25.7% 41% 41% -21.7%
≤30d 203 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 48% -12.8%
≤90d 203 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 48% -12.8%
all 203 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 48% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 48% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -21.1%
15% -25.1% 36% -28.7%
20% -32.4% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 98
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions5
Markets (closed)203 / 208
History coverage27d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $34 +$30 +88%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $6 +$9 +140%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $57 +$35 +62%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $7 +$14 +189%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $16 −$12 -76%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $10 +$17 +167%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $4 +$6 +142%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $41 +$11 +26%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $14 +$16 +109%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $46 +$20 +43%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $37 +$6 +16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $26 −$12 -48%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $7 +$8 +118%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $133 +$138 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $34 +$11 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $36 −$8 -23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 14 $32 +$16 +50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $43 +$32 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 1¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 14¢ $10 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 21¢ $72 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 2¢ $2 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 9¢ $10 6h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 19¢ $10 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 16¢ $1 6h
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nat BUY Yes 8¢ $10 18h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 31¢ $5 21h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 29¢ $66 21h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 15¢ $1 22h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 18¢ $5 23h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ $31 24h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 41¢ $31 24h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 13¢ $10 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 3¢ $1 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 7¢ $1 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 9¢ $1 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 10¢ $2 25h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ $10 26h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $5 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 21¢ $1 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $12 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 26¢ $1 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 45¢ $1 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 51¢ $5 26h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 40¢ $15 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 24¢ $10 26h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 16¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.33 · official $102.33 (match) · 752 history records