Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b80…84b4 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$63 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%15W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$81
14 days−$45
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$28
other 35% −$44
sports 12% −$1
world 2% −$4
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -60.9% -64.6% 15% 15% -46.0%
≤30d 76 -43.1% -48.5% 20% 20% -25.1%
≤90d 79 -45.2% -50.4% 19% 19% -27.7%
all 79 -45.2% -50.4% 19% 19% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 19% -27.7%
10% -55.2% 19% -34.6%
15% -59.5% 16% -41.0%
20% -63.5% 16% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses15 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)79 / 99
History coverage31d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +206%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +204%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$11 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$21 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 37m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $31 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 52¢ $15 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $7 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 66¢ $9 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 81¢ $22 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 30h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.81 · official $77.46 · 190 history records