Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8B 0x8b7f…498c crypto 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$262 (-48%) realized −$19 · open −$243

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-22.4%
≤30d	4	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-22.4%
≤90d	4	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-22.4%
all	4	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-22.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.2%	50%	-22.4%
10%	-15.2%	50%	-29.8%
15%	-23.4%	50%	-36.6%
20%	-30.9%	50%	-42.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized−$19

Unrealized−$243

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$447	$204	−$243 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-95%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 18	$16	+$10	+64%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 18	$16	$0	-0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$5	+51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$380	2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$26	35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$26	35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$16	35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$16	35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$16	35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$15	36h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$10	36h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$10	36h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.06 · official $204.06 (match) · 16 history records