Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b7c…d541 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$6
other 22% −$2
finance 7% +$4
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 20% -8.1%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 42% 8% -8.2%
all 25 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -8.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage375d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $54 +$9 +16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $42 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $105 −$5 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $61 +$4 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $130 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $42 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $2 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $44 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $10 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $12 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $52 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $54 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $58 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $61 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $17 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $15 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 100 history records