Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8b7b…9ab9 sports 1032 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,172 (-2%) realized −$2,865 · open +$693
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate74%750W / 265L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$1,204
14 days−$1,453
30 days−$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$378
other 17% −$201
tech 10% −$453
finance 6% −$498
weather 5% −$401
culture 3% +$738
crypto 1% −$1,103
world 1% −$79
politics 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -48.9% -53.8% 44% 19% -42.8%
≤30d 108 -20.6% -28.1% 69% 27% -14.4%
≤90d 433 -4.4% -13.5% 78% 41% -17.1%
all 1015 -0.2% -9.7% 74% 50% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 50% -11.9%
10% -18.3% 33% -20.3%
15% -26.2% 22% -28.0%
20% -33.4% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$101 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$8,671
Realized−$2,865
Unrealized+$693
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses750 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1015 / 1032
History coverage133d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $5,100 $5,549 +$449 (+9%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $800 $816 +$16 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $550 $610 +$60 (+11%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $500 $598 +$98 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? No 93¢ 90¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? No 95¢ 99¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+51%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+51%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 24 $150 +$4 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 22 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? Jun 20 $203 −$148 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $251 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $150 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $150 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $50 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,670.66 · official $8,665.41 (match) · 2324 history records