Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b75…14e4 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+5%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% +10.4%
≤30d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% +10.4%
≤90d 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% +10.4%
all 19 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 47% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% +10.4%
10% -24.5% 47% -0.2%
15% -31.8% 47% -9.8%
20% -38.5% 47% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records