Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

8B 0x8b75…779c other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$245 (-9%) realized −$242 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +164% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip

Net edge+139%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate61%14W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$144

7 days−$206

14 days−$206

30 days−$199

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+138.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+175.0%	+148.8%	57%	52%	-21.7%
≤30d	23	+163.7%	+138.6%	61%	57%	-21.2%
≤90d	23	+163.7%	+138.6%	61%	57%	-21.2%
all	23	+163.7%	+138.6%	61%	57%	-21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+138.6%	57%	-21.2%
10%	+115.8%	48%	-28.8%
15%	+94.9%	39%	-35.7%
20%	+75.8%	35%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +164% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late +331% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$91 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$324

Realized−$242

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses14 / 9

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage18d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$326	$324	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$270	+$63	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$286	+$86	+30%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 16	$79	+$10	+13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$286	+$27	+9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$149	−$146	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$153	+$2	+1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	+$198	+194%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$81	−$79	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$183	−$181	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$219	−$218	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$177	+$95	+54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$68	+$52	+77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$39	+$32	+81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$56	−$55	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$36	+$19	+53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$36	−$36	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$68	−$67	-99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$50	+$11	+23%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$39	+$16	+41%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	May 29	$8	+$6	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	May 29	$7	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$330	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$330	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$270	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$270	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$192	4h
Spread: France (-2.5)	SELL Senegal	90¢	$89	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL No	52¢	$103	5h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY Senegal	79¢	$79	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$69	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$25	10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	80¢	$140	23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$139	23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$149	23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	29¢	$148	23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$146	24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$153	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$300	25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$81	28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	33¢	$102	28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$183	30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$219	37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$106	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL No	92¢	$120	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY No	51¢	$68	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	51¢	$68	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$71	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	99¢	$71	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	54¢	$39	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.31 · official $323.86 (match) · 50 history records